Looking at the general trend of China's development, 2022 will be a great and turning year. What changes will take place in 2022?

This paper interprets changes from four perspectives: the world, individuals, enterprises and countries.

1、 World Chapter

1. 2022 is still a year to fight the epidemic. However, with the popularization of vaccines, the impact of the epidemic on the economy decreases. It is expected that more economies will restart their economy, open their borders and choose the mode of coexistence with the epidemic.

2, COVID-19's further evolution began to develop a virus with stronger transmission, but a weaker death rate. The new crown became a large colds, and the world began to see the dawn of the epidemic.

3. The Democratic Party of the United States lost the mid-term election and Biden has no hope of re-election.

4. US inflation further intensified and the Fed was forced to raise interest rates. U.S. stocks fell sharply and faced a super high-level peak.

5. The price of raw materials continues to rise. With the recovery of the world economy, demand will soon recover to a certain position, but the recovery of the supply chain will take time, and there is a gap in capacity supply, resulting in the contradiction between supply and demand in 2022, pushing up the upstream price level.

6. 2022 is a special year for metauniverse. Apple is expected to release its first Mr product, oculus may release quest pro, Sony is expected to release a new generation of PS VR, or lead the development direction of the industry.

7. There will be more extreme weather in the world in 2022. Affected by the weather and food supply chain, the world will face food shortage and large-scale famine in Africa.

2、 National chapter

8. In 2022, China's economy will gradually return to normal and return to a growth rate of about 5% - 6%. The growth potential mainly comes from AI and robotics, new energy, electric vehicles and other fields.

9. China US relations in 2022 show differentiation in different fields. In the economic field, the United States may have the impetus to reduce the tariff rate on China due to the impact of its own sharp rise in inflation on Residents' lives; However, in the geopolitical, technological and financial fields, the United States will still step up its containment.

10. In 2022, China's real estate market will change from overall cooling to differentiation. The first and second tier cities with continuous population inflow and continuous income growth are expected to see a significant recovery in the second and third quarters of next year.

11. A shares continue to slow down. With the relatively loose monetary policy and economic recovery, a shares may break through 4000 points next year.

12. Single economy, trillion business opportunities. A lonely little man looking at the earth from a distance, this familiar wechat interface is becoming the most realistic portrayal of many contemporary people. 240 million people. This is the data of single adults released by the Ministry of civil affairs in 2018, of which more than 77 million adults live alone. This figure is expected to rise to 92 million by 2022. This trend has also supported a trillion market.

13. In the industrial chain and the field of science and technology, the places that are stuck are full of opportunities. The place where we are stuck is where we have to break through! The direction of development may not be clear before, but now it is almost clear.

14. For everyone in the future, one thing will become very important, that is credit. Behavior - Credit - ability - personality - wealth. With the help of big data, your behavior deduces your credit value, and then with credit as the fulcrum, ability as the lever and personality as the driving force, the power range of joint prying is the size of the world you control.

15. The independence between people is increasing, and people are more willing to pursue inner happiness. Industries with spiritual attributes will usher in greater development.

3、 Enterprise chapter

16. The barbaric development stage of China's entrepreneurial market is completely over, and "hard technology" will become the new mainstream of the next entrepreneurial wave. The principle of "only fast is invincible" may be gradually abandoned. We will call for a "slow philosophy", and those "fast companies" will face a test.

17. Antitrust is still the biggest variable in the science and technology industry, but Internet antitrust will change from "breaking" to "establishing". More Internet enterprises will seize the opportunity to go to sea and make overseas money, and the shares of Internet enterprises will rise to the bottom.

18. The digital trend is irreversible and continues to be greatly advanced by the epidemic, accelerating for at least six years. At the same time, the digital future is a differentiated future. Whether digitalization is honey or poison to you only depends on whether you are responsible for people or things.

19. After years of Internet business, the consumer industry began to counter attack offline, and the domestic goods movement is in the ascendant. More and more enterprises will be willing to invest in the creation of domestic brands, and more and more consumers are willing to pay for domestic products.

20. In 2021, the education and training industry tasted the taste of falling from the tuyere to the bottom. In 2022, discipline training will be gradually transformed into vocational education, and vocational education has embarked on the fast lane.

21. More online Red brands will appear, but more online Red brands will die. Most online Red brands can't escape the fate of "not worthy of the name, but only a flash in the pan".

22. The original enterprise is horizontal development: bigger and bigger, involving more and more areas. Therefore, the more enterprises do, the easier it is to carry out "homogeneous competition". In the future, enterprises will develop vertically: the more they do, the more sophisticated they are, and the deeper they dig. This change makes the industry more and more vertical and the cooperation more and more perfect. As a result, China is becoming more and more subdivided, the structure is more and more sophisticated, and the independence between enterprises and industries is becoming stronger and stronger. "Differentiated coexistence" has become the mainstream of business.

23. The original first-class enterprises make "standards", which is the logic of the big industrial era. All products are neatly unified, and the standard setters can enjoy their success. In the future, the "service" of first-class enterprises is the kind of service that can meet all kinds of consumers and needs. It is often customized. It has high requirements for enterprises in two aspects: the first is the ability to provide customization (Technology) and the second is the ability to connect with consumers (Internet)

24. Evolution theory of China's Internet: traditional Internet - Mobile Internet - interconnection of all things. Traditional Internet is PC Internet, which solves information symmetry; Mobile Internet solves the problem of efficiency docking; The future Internet of things needs to solve the interconnection of all things: free sharing of data and distribution of value on demand. Each person should make full use of their talents and needs, so that everyone can find a matching person, and then have various relationships.

picture

25. The evolution theory of China's marketing format: media is king - technology is king - content is king - products are king. Traditional advertising always relies on the power of the media to influence people, such as the bidding of CCTV. Later, Internet advertising began to rely on technology to achieve accurate delivery, such as delivery by region, revenue and time period. Later, the rise of social media enables good advertising to spread spontaneously. In the future, the best advertising product itself and the best product must also have advertising effect.

26. The flow of China's industrial chain is counter attacking. In the past, production before consumption: producers - Dealers - consumers. The future must be consumption before production: consumers - designers - producers. Therefore, the group of traditional dealers will disappear, and a large number of designers who can transform into products according to the ideas of consumers will appear.

27. In the future, all "dealers" will become "service providers". They no longer rely on helping manufacturers sell products (earn price difference) to make money, but rely on themselves to provide follow-up value-added services to consumers, which is conducive to give full play to their creativity and initiative and product after-sales.

4、 Personal article

28. China will be more and more subdivided: the industry will be more and more vertical and the cooperation will be more and more perfect. Therefore, the traditional barrel principle is no longer tenable. In the past, we always made up for our shortcomings, because your shortcomings limit your comprehensive level. In the future, we will continue to extend our strengths, because your strengths determine your level.

29. For every Chinese, the five key words of traditional struggle: background, education, resources, contacts and qualifications; Five key words for future struggle: knowledge, innovation, independence, personality and ideal. In the past, it was better to have a good father than to learn mathematics and chemistry well. Now, it is better to have a good father than to have a culture. China's "new intellectuals" will re-enter the historical stage.

30. Chinese people are changing from "external demand" to "internal demand". External demand is to seek relationships, channels and opportunities. Internal demand is to stimulate your own interest, enthusiasm and hope. When you do yourself well, external things will be attracted by you. This is the so-called "seeking others is better than seeking yourself".

31. A large number of freelancers are emerging in China. The basic structure of society has changed from company + employee to platform + individual. Everyone will break through the shackles of tradition and get the chance of rebirth. The key depends on whether you stimulate your potential energy. This is a real liberation movement!

32. The social status of a large number of people with "ingenuity" in China will be improved. Those who are down-to-earth, such as craftsmen, programmers, designers, screenwriters, writers, artists and so on, because the Internet has built the social framework, and the rest is soul filling! Therefore, even for ordinary jobs, their social status will be improved and respected.

33. Everyone will be an independent economy in the future. That is, we can complete a task independently, or we can rely on cooperation and organization to carry out systematic projects. Therefore, the society is not lack of trivial cultivators, nor of organizations and teams with the ability to carry out vast projects.

34. It turns out that each of us is bound by the barrel principle, that is, your short board limits your comprehensive level, so we are always making up for our short board, and with the improvement of people's cooperation efficiency. Your strength determines your level in the future. We don't have to stare at our own short board. You just need to give full play to one aspect you are good at, and others will cooperate with you. This is called the long board principle.

35. Our work is moving from "passive" to "active". In the past, in order to make a living, we needed to rely on a fixed company to repeat fixed labor at a fixed time and place, which belongs to passive labor. The total wealth of the future society is created in this way: people rely on their own strengths, point-to-point docking and complete every demand, and fully integrate into every link of the society, which belongs to active creation.

36. For everyone in the future, one thing that will become particularly important in the future is your credit. The route of personal wealth in the future is as follows: Behavior - ability - Credit - personality - wealth. With the help of big data and the Internet, your behavior deduces your credit value. Then, with credit as the fulcrum, ability as the lever and personality as the driving force, the power range of joint prying is not only your wealth value, but also the size of the world you control.

37. In the past, people pay attention to the relationship, but in the future, people pay attention to the rules. The relationship network of traditional society has been constantly torn apart. With value distribution as the relationship, new links are being formed. Everyone is a node for value transmission. Your position and level are determined by the value you bring. When everyone is talking about rules, morality will rise naturally.

38. Everyone can have their own products in the future. How to achieve it? The logic should be as follows: Creativity - expression - display - order - production - customer. When you have an idea, you can express it first, then display it on the platform (there will be more and more such platforms), and then attract people you like to place orders. After you get the order, you can find a factory for production (don't worry about too little, the production will be refined and customized in the future), and then send it to consumers.

39. It turns out that we only believe in our own eyes. The so-called seeing is believing. However, due to the gradual maturity of "virtual reality" technology, we are no longer so stubborn: VR can put you in any world, and AR can bring anything to you. Therefore, seeing is no longer true. In the future, we may only believe in our hearts. As long as our hearts touch and read, everything will come. Then all things outside the heart are vanity.

40. The relationship between people in primitive society is "exchange", the relationship between people in slave society is "slavery", the relationship between people in feudal society is "Exploitation", the relationship between people in capitalist society is "employment", and the relationship between people in future society is "cooperation", which is the development path of human society and the ladder of civilization and progress, No link can be missing.